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It is well known that the lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 8 or 1 in 9.  Dr. Page emphasized that that is the lifetime risk if a lady reaches age 90.  He reviewed the relative risk by decade as follows, were one to follow a group of 2500 women for 90 years:

1.    By age 20, 1/2500 gets breast cancer.

2.    By age 30, 1/233                     "

3.    By age 40, 1/63                       "

4.    By age 50, 1/41                       "

5.    By age 60, 1/28    (89 of 2500)  "

6.    By age 70, 1/25                       "

7.    By age 80, 1/16                       "

8.    By age 90, 1/9      (278 of 2500)"    (and 2222 didn't get it)

Thus, a lady reaching age 50 has approximately 1 in 40 chance of having gotten breast cancer, a hazard that is increased to 1 in 28 by age 60, etc. Of all women alive at age 90, 1 in 9 will have had breast cancer.

[Posted 11/20/02; latest update 27 November 2002]