Estimation of Individual Survival Probabilities by the 1995 German formula derived from 4371 cases diagnosed 1970-1988:

1.    survival odds at "t" months equals the general/baseline probability adjusted by the exponential power of the sum of your personal variables; expressed as a formula:

2.    formula: S(t) = S₀(t) ^{(c_t + c₁ + c_h + c_a1 + c_g + c_a)}

3.    where (t) → survival period that you want to mark (e.g., 60 months);  S(t) → survival probability from below tables for that number of months at time t; S₀ (t) → baseline survival probability at time t; c_t→ coefficient of tumor thickness; c₁ → coefficient of Clark level of invasion;  c_h → coefficient of  histologic subtype; c_a1 → coefficient of anatomic location; c_g → coefficient of gender; c_a → coefficient of age)

4.    see examples below the next section of coefficient tables

The Coefficient Table

Case examples: 

(case 1): male, 55 years, 2.55 mm Breslow thickness  superficial spreading melanoma of the back of the thorax/chest, Clark III level of invasion 

What's my probability of making it 5 years...  S(t=60mo)?  to tables & pick S₀(t) beside S(t) of 60-71.

        =S₀(60 mo) ^{(c_t + c₁ + c_h + c_a1 + c_g + c_a)}

        =0.9938 ^{(1.9654 + 1.3970 + 0 + 0.4541 + 0.4119 + 0)}

        =0.9938 ^(4.2284) =  0.6527

Estimated 60-mo survival odds are 0.6527, or a 65% probability

(case 2):  female, 80 years, 4.20 mm thick  LMM at the thigh, level of invasion IV

What's my probability of making it 3 years... S(t = 36 months)

        =S₀(36 months) ^{(c_t + c₁ + c_h + c_a1 + c_g + c_a)}

        = 0.9961 ^{(2.4609 + 1.3970 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0.1859)}

        =0.9961 ^{(4.0438) = 0.9961 (57.04) = 0.8002}

Estimated 36-mo survival odds are 0.8002, or an 80% probability 

Reference: "Primary cutaneous melanoma. Identification of prognostic groups and estimation of individual prognosis for 5093 patients" Garbe C, Buttner P, Bertz J, Burg G, d'Hoedt B, Drepper H, Guggenmoos-Holzmann I, Lechnre W, Lippold A, Orfanos CE, et. al., Cancer 75(10):2484-91, 15 May 1995 [from the University Dept. of Dermatology, Steglitz Medical Center, Berlin, Germany]. 

(posted 2002; latest addition 23 October 2003)